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Paul Graham on Founder · ViralLoop

Post by Paul Graham on X

Paul Graham@paulg

Luck is a factor in the success of all startups, but you can't succeed as a founder merely by being lucky. If a startup were a single event you could. But although a startup is a single organization, it represents multiple events. So the probability of winning by luck = 1 / 2^n.

2.1K likes97 repliesPosted Mar 7, 2021

View the original on X Written by Paul Graham. Captured Sep 4, 2026.

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Why it worked

Short enough to read in full without expanding, which removes a step before the point lands.
Short sentences keep the pace up, so the reader never has to re-read a line.

The mechanics

Hook: Plain observation
Structure: Hook → Turn
Style: Conversational paragraphs at a steady pace.
Tone: plain, matter-of-fact
Written for: Founders and early-stage teams

Analysis by ViralLoop — not written by the original author.

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