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The mechanics

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Analysis by ViralLoop — not written by the original author.

Nate Silver on Growth · ViralLoop

Post by Nate Silver on X

Nate Silver@NateSilver538

And yes, I have criticisms of pre-Elon Twitter and obviously Bluesky, too. But things tend to get especially broken when you suppress outbound traffic and break links to the rest of the web, as with Twitter now or mid/late-2010s Facebook.

3.8K likes183 repliesPosted Apr 5, 2026

View the original on X Written by Nate Silver. Captured Sep 4, 2026.

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57

Viral score

Based on absolute engagement — the platform doesn’t expose follower counts here, so large accounts score higher.

From likes, comments.

Why it worked

Opens with a short, self-contained line that is easy to take in at a glance.
The opening line stands alone, so it reads completely before the post is expanded.
Written from experience rather than as advice, which is harder to argue with.
Short enough to read in full without expanding, which removes a step before the point lands.

The mechanics

Hook: Plain observation
Structure: Hook
Style: Conversational paragraphs at a steady pace.
Tone: personal
Written for: Growth and marketing teams

Analysis by ViralLoop — not written by the original author.

Topics

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It's not my data. The source is Cluvio, which is linked to in the article. I'd link to it in this tweet, but ironically, that would kill engagement. And I know that traffic is hard to count. Especially for a private company. But if you have more accurate data, then publish it.

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Welp, that happened faster than I predicted. Thought it would be end of 2027, then early 2027, but agentic traffic growing so fast that bots have now passed human traffic online for the first time in the Internet's history. t.co

More from Nate Silver

Even when a newsletter *does* generate a lot of on-platform discussion because I put more work in, the conversion to off-site traffic is very middling. Maybe 2-3% of the readership for a Silver Bulletin article instead of ~1%. At 538, ~15% of our traffic came from Twitter!

That isn't really what the tweet you're self-quoting says. It says it's hard to establish the quality signal associated with a link and so each tweet should "stand alone", and also the platform design makes it hard to engage with such tweets. Maybe fix that?

It's not my data. The source is Cluvio, which is linked to in the article. I'd link to it in this tweet, but ironically, that would kill engagement. And I know that traffic is hard to count. Especially for a private company. But if you have more accurate data, then publish it.

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This is fair but deep uncertainty and confusion is probably the correct response tbh. Which is not to say there aren't firms out there with a clearer (though not necessarily correct) thesis about AI. But the median market participant doesn't and is going to be very vibes-based.