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Dwarkesh Patel on AI · ViralLoop

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Post by Dwarkesh Patel on X

Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp

I think this is the most interesting prediction about what will happen in this world of 10x compute prices: If you can train the best, most efficient model, then you’ll be able to charge MUCH higher margins than you can today.

570 likes34 repliesPosted Jul 29, 2026

View the original on X Written by Dwarkesh Patel. Captured Sep 4, 2026.

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Viral score

Based on absolute engagement — the platform doesn’t expose follower counts here, so large accounts score higher.

From likes, comments.

Why it worked

Uses concrete numbers instead of vague claims, which makes it credible and quotable.
Written from experience rather than as advice, which is harder to argue with.
Short enough to read in full without expanding, which removes a step before the point lands.

The mechanics

Hook: Plain observation
Structure: Hook → Landing
Style: Conversational paragraphs at a steady pace.
Tone: personal, concrete
Mechanisms: Specificity
Written for: People building with AI

Analysis by ViralLoop — not written by the original author.

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More from Dwarkesh Patel

New blog post on what would be true about the world if trendline continues and leading lab hits $1T in revenue by the end of next year. In other words, why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years t.co

Robert Conquest had 3 famous laws of politics. The first: "Everyone is conservative about what they know best." In the same vein: "Everyone thinks that the median job is far easier to automate than their own job."

“From 2012 to 2020, it was the age of research. From 2020 to 2025, it was the age of scaling. Is the belief that if you just 100x the scale, everything would be transformed? I don't think that's true. It's back to the age of research again, just with big computers.” @ilyasut

"I can make the argument that if you're a model company, you may have a winner's curse. You may have done all the hard work, done unbelievable innovation, except it's one copy away from that being commoditized." @satyanadella

Running Claude Code on your @Obsidian directory is super powerful. Here Claude goes through my notes on an upcoming guest's book, and converts my commentary into a list of questions to be added onto the Interview Prep file.

Zuck on: - Llama 3 - open sourcing towards AGI - custom silicon, synthetic data, & energy constraints on scaling - Caeser Augustus, intelligence explosion, bioweapons, $10b models, & much more Enjoy! Links below