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First Sentinel — giving the judgement away

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22 posts · curated by Nam Nguyen

With no product to announce, an advisory firm's only currency is reasoning a reader can apply before they ever hire you. These are posts that spend judgement rather than credentials.

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Francisco Amador | Sleepwell@SleepwellCap

so let me get this straight: PSKY approaches WBD for acquisition NFLX puts higher offer for WBD PSKY puts in even higher offer, at 7X leverage NFLX declines to match offer = Now PSKY+WBD will have to license all their content to NFLX to payoff all that debt 3D Chess♟️

Opens with an observation

1.8K likes15 repliesGrowthX6mo ago

Trevor Sumner@trevorsumner

Some people are calling the 737MAX tragedies a #software failure. Here's my response: It's not a software problem. It was an * Economic problem that the 737 engines used too much fuel, so they decided to install more efficient engines with bigger fans and make the 737MAX.

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1.5K likes29 repliesLessonsX7y ago

Sheel Mohnot@pitdesi

GC would be the 1st major US VC fund to IPO. They: own a health system, a wealth business, a FoF, debt business, etc. All started from a $73M fund 1 that had a 0.7% IRR! Their first 5 funds weren't exceptional. All changed when Hemant led Stripe's B (2012)!

Opens with an observation

739 likes31 repliesFounderX1y ago

Robert G. Reeve@RobertGReeve

I'm back from a week at my mom's house and now I'm getting ads for her toothpaste brand, the brand I've been putting in my mouth for a week. We never talked about this brand or googled it or anything like that. As a privacy tech worker, let me explain why this is happening. 🧵

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242K likes2K repliesMarketingX5y ago

Dan Price@DanPriceSeattle

CitiGroup announced 20,000 layoffs in January despite $9.2 billion in annual profit. Since then their stock has soared 22% because "costs are lower." Guess how upper management gets paid? Via stock. So they all got a huge raise. Corporate incentives are all backward.

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5.2K likes73 repliesRevenueX2y ago

Nathan Lambert@natolambert

Kimi K3 license. It's inspired by MIT but distinctly non-commercial, where any company making over $20M/yr must get a specific commercial deal (and display Kimi K3 if over 100M users or $20M/mo revenue)

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3.8K likes203 repliesRevenueX1mo ago

Cole South@ColeSouth

ever wonder why the cheap junk flooding Amazon has keyboard-mashing brand names like MOFFBUZW? let's dive into an example... the 2nd organic result for "baby moccasins" has: - 0 reviews - no Prime offer - 20 day shipping (lol) - a brand name that literally looks like Dog Shit

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3K likes98 repliesMarketingX4y ago

Faisal Islam@faisalislam

Well, well, well. US customs messaging note quietly slipped out last night shows that smartphones, the number 1 Chinese export to the US by value last year, exempted from the 125% tariff… alongside chips, processors, wafers, lcd panels, LEDs etc…  8517.13.00.00 Smartphones

Opens with an observation

1.9K likes125 repliesMarketingX1y ago

Gergely Orosz@GergelyOrosz

Had to do a double take on this: Snap generates $6B of revenue, has 450M+ daily active users, and yet it’s valued at $9B (!!!) When you go down the rabbit hole to understand why this terribly low valuation, you learn very very interesting stuff about Snap+about the ads business

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1.6K likes49 repliesMarketingX4mo ago

Javi Lopez ⛩️@javilopen

Why is nobody talking about this? Sora 2 tends to copy actual songs from major IPs, even without being prompted. And the music industry isn’t known for leaving things unresolved without multi-million-dollar lawsuits 😑

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920 likes124 repliesMarketingX11mo ago

Michael Lai@Mtclai

👋🏻 I'm a volunteer preschool teacher turned founder / CEO at Series A childcare startup t.co When I first explored the US childcare system in 2016, what baffled me the most was the cost. This is a 🧵 about why daycare is so expensive in the US. 1/20

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905 likes26 repliesFounderX4y ago

Derek Thompson@DKThomp

If Max is paying a marketing company a $1m annual retainer for naming strategy, this is pathetic. But. If Max figured that it can add and remove “HBO” from its streaming title every 2 years to create a bunch of free outraged publicity, I sort of respect the play.

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822 likes21 repliesMarketingX1y ago

Arfur Rock@ArfurRock

OpenEvidence raising $250M at $12B. $150M RR on just ads, +3x from August. On <1M users. Resulting in 90% GM, inclusive of all compute. 2026 will be the year AI ads cross the rubicon. If you're building an AI app figure out your ad strategy ASAP. You'll be behind without.

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633 likes37 repliesMarketingX9mo ago

zerohedge@zerohedge

META: "We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $130-145 billion, narrowed from our prior outlook of $125-145 billion." because narrowed sounds better than raised

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545 likes34 repliesFounderX1mo ago

Theo - t3.gg@theo

I get why they’re doing it though. I had a brand decline working with me because “you only get 100,000 views, this other guy is half your price and gets 70,000 views” The “other guy” was getting those views on X, where “views” count API responds with your post ID.

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473 likes10 repliesMarketingX25d ago

Jeff Gluck@jeff_gluck

One reason why Fox would buy one third of IndyCar? @AndrewMarchand writes: "Fox learned a lesson with UFC, which it helped create into a multibillion-dollar business, only to see it leave for ESPN. Fox doesn’t want to make that mistake again." t.co

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449 likes40 repliesLessonsX1y ago

slow rolling layoffs make people unsafe people who are feeling unsafe and defensive don’t perform at 100% you’ll see a short term bump in your stock price, but ultimately you will lose

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418 likes29 repliesHiringX10mo ago

Sheel Mohnot@pitdesi

Anthropic exp $10.9B Q2 revenue, up from $4.8B in Q1, and $559M of operating profit for the Q. Compute is 56 cents per dollar of revenue, lower than I expected. Q2 projection: $10.9B revenue -$6.1B compute -$2.7B sales & marketing -$1.5B other costs =$559M operating income

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370 likes28 repliesRevenueX3mo ago

scott budman@scottbudman

If you’re worried about your data on 23andMe: Here’s how to delete your DNA data on the site: 1. Sign in, go to “Settings.” 2. Go to "Delete Your Data.” You can download a copy of your data first. 3. Confirm DOB, and click “confirm.”

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304 likes27 repliesMarketingX1y ago

Signal@signalapp

Facebook is probably more comfortable selling ads than buying them, but they'll do what they have to do in order to be the top result when some people search for 'Signal' in the App Store. P.S. There will never be ads in Signal, because your data belongs in your hands not ours.

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54K likes1.3K repliesMarketingX5y ago

Jeff Bezos@JeffBezos

Thank you. The important part is zeroing out taxes on the bottom half. Best way to put money in someone’s pocket is to not take it out in the first place. Bottom half is only 3% of total tax revenue. But it’s very meaningful to that person. Zero it out.

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54K likes3.2K repliesRevenueX3mo ago

Joe Pompliano@JoePompliano

YouTube TV is increasing its price to $83 a month starting in January 2025. That means YouTube TV has now doubled in price over the last five years, from $40 to $83 per month, while also removing regional sports networks and other channels like MLB network. That’s crazy.

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29K likes3.6K repliesRevenueX1y ago

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First Sentinel — giving the judgement away · ViralLoop