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First Tin — one asymmetry, stated once · ViralLoop

First Tin — one asymmetry, stated once

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22 posts · curated by Nam Nguyen

Resource companies live on a single structural fact about supply. These are posts built the same way: the scarcity quantified, then the position against it, and nothing else competing for the reader.

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Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay

$MU expects tight memory conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027 with no clear line of sight on when supply catches up. Micron also has $22B in customer deposits and strategic commitments while planning to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders over time.

Opens with an observation

1K likes49 repliesRevenueX2mo ago

Douglas Irwin@D_A_Irwin

Yes, this is an off-the-charts increase in tariffs - particularly because the tariffs are applied to the 2/3rds of imports that normally come in duty free (coffee, tea, tin, bananas, etc.) Even Nixon's 10% surcharge in 1971 did not include those goods. . . .

Opens with an observation

790 likes15 repliesMaterialsX1y ago

Ashlee Vance@ashleevance

China recently sanctioned the drone maker Skydio because it supplied drones to Taiwan, and the result now is that Skydio has to limit its customers to *one battery per drone* because the batteries are sourced from China and supply has been cut off. The US remains in trouble.

Opens with an observation

410 likes20 repliesEnergyX1y ago

Lin@Speculator_io

Memory now makes up more than 1/4 of the total cost of a GPU rack. And there are only 3 HBM companies in the world: - Micron - SK Hynix - Samsung That's it. These 3 companies sit in one of the most important layers of the AI supply chain. The $3 trillion memory bottleneck.

Opens with an observation

384 likes31 repliesAIX3mo ago

ARC Prize@arcprize

Announcing ARC-AGI-3 The only unsaturated agentic intelligence benchmark in the world Humans score 100%, AI <1% This human-AI gap demonstrates we do not yet have AGI Most benchmarks test what models already know, ARC-AGI-3 tests how they learn

Opens with an announcement

4.3K likes259 repliesAIX5mo ago

Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay

$NVDA says memory pricing has become “extreme,” with costs rising faster than expected and supply likely constrained through FY28. If Nvidia is telling you memory is getting tighter for longer then it becomes much harder to justify $MU and $SKHY still trading below 6x earnings.

Opens with an observation

2.3K likes66 repliesRevenueX16d ago

For the first time ever, YouTube's revenue surpassed $50 billion, says Sundar Pichai at the Google earnings. That makes it the #1 highest grossing video app with Netflix, ~$37B, at #2!

Opens with a number

1.9K likes58 repliesRevenueX1y ago

Claude 3.5 is here. Sonnet is the first release and has: — 2x the speed of Opus — 1/5th the cost of Opus — 200k token context window — Better quality than Opus and GPT-4o I don't trust benchmarks so I tried a Physics q that GPT 4-o failed and Sonnet nailed it. Insane launch.

Opens with an observation

1.3K likes40 repliesAIX2y ago

Dylan Patel@dylan522p

OpenAI hasn’t even deployed TPUs yet and they’ve already saved ~30% on their entire lab wide NVIDIA fleet. This demonstrates how the perf per TCO advantage of TPUs is so strong that you already get the gains from adopting TPUs even before turning one on. The piece covers a lot

Opens with an observation

1.2K likes60 repliesAIX9mo ago

Max Tani@maxwelltani

Notable bits from this email: - WaPo search has declined by half in three years - Daily story output has "substantially fallen" in the last five years - Murray argues: "we too often write from one perspective, for one slice of the audience."

Opens with an observation

458 likes38 repliesMarketingX7mo ago

Kyle Chan@kyleichan

Apple plans to make all of its US market iPhones in India by end of 2026. I’ve talked about a possible bifurcated supply chain: one for the US market and one for the rest of the world. Apple is an interesting test case. Meanwhile, China is holding back iPhone equipment to India

Opens with an observation

362 likes25 repliesMaterialsX1y ago

Kyle Harrison@kwharrison13

"We ran the math. OpenAI is buying 3-4x more memory than it could possibly need in the short term. The most charitable explanation is aggressive forward positioning. The less charitable one is that they're cornering supply to kill on-device AI before it starts."

Opens with an observation

343 likes27 repliesAIX6mo ago

Max Weinbach@mweinbach

Cook essentially just said on the earnings call that Chinese memory, if they could use it, would help on the supply side and they are not sure about the pricing side Essentially, they just need access and it doesn't necessarily mean it's "cheap Chinese memory"

Opens with an observation

156 likes3 repliesRevenueX1mo ago

Microsoft Research@MSFTResearch

Fara-7B is our first agentic small language model for computer use. This experimental model includes robust safety measures to aid responsible deployment. Despite its size, Fara-7B holds its own against larger, more resource-intensive agentic systems: t.co

Three white line icons on a blue-to-green gradient background: a computer monitor with a globe symbol on the left, a cursor arrow with click lines in the center, and a computer mouse outline on the right.

Opens with a number

2.1K likes57 repliesAIX9mo ago

Ethan Mollick@emollick

If you have used LLM image generators, you know they are hard to control: LLM had to send a prompt to a separate image generation tool, it did not not make the image. Gemini is the first public release of a full multimodal LLM that can directly make images. Big capability gain.

Opens with direct address

2K likes38 repliesAIX1y ago

Techmeme@Techmeme

Kirkland & Ellis, the world's highest-grossing law firm, is setting aside $500M to build its own AI platform rather than rely on tools available to its rivals (Financial Times) (Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)

Opens with an observation

1.2K likes70 repliesAIX3mo ago

Hasu⚡️🤖@hasufl

If you want my serious take 1. Bybit has way more than 1.4b of revenue per year. They are good for the money and will make all customers whole. 2. It doesn't matter for ETH because Bybit will honor customers's ETH liabilities and buy back the assets on open market.

Opens with direct address

1.1K likes57 repliesRevenueX1y ago

Mike Solana@micsolana

at his height on fox tucker made, what, $20M a year? bari isn't just selling a media company, she's talent herself. her + her entire team, let's call it $150M or so for a five-year contract or something? I don't know why people are freaking out. that's media.

Opens with a number

631 likes51 repliesHiringX1y ago

CoinMamba@coinmamba

Monad has one of the most predatory tokenomics. - Team allocation is at industry highest 27% - VCs get 20% which they got at much lower prices to retail - Ecosystem Development is at 38.5%, which is similar to Plasma and you know how that ended

Opens with an observation

436 likes81 repliesHiringX10mo ago

Peter Harrell@petereharrell

One legal point: The DoW "supply chain risk" designation applies to DoW *contracts,* not generally. DoW can tell suppliers "don't use Anthropic when performing DoW contracts." But DoW can't, legally, tell its contractors "don't use Anthropic even in your private contracts."

Opens with an observation

394 likes35 repliesAIX6mo ago

litquidity@litcapital

The reason why you want a ~20% IPO pop on day 1 is to reward investors who helped make the IPO successful by committing to the order book Pricing perfectly with no pop only benefits the company and not the investors (in the short term). The stock could rip or tank in longer run

Opens with a number

368 likes15 repliesRevenueX3mo ago

Socket@SocketSecurity

🚨 Active npm supply chain attack: keyv@6.0.0 and 13 other packages have been compromised. keyv alone gets 154M weekly downloads. The worm steals cloud and CI credentials, then uses stolen npm tokens to publish trojanized versions of more packages.

Opens with an observation

340 likes15 repliesAIX1mo ago

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